Super Tuesday Wrap Up- Republican

5 02 2008

* First magic numbers- Republicans need 1,191 delegates to get nomination. Super Tuesday there is 1,020 up for grabs. 15 primaries and 6 caucuses.
* WTA= Winner Take All
* In Order of Delegate CountCalifornia: 173 (MCCAIN)

New York: 101 WTA (MCCAIN)

Georgia: 72 (HUCKABEE)

Illinois: 70 (MCCAIN)

Missouri: 58 WTA (MCCAIN)

Tennessee: 55 (HUCKABEE)

Arizona: 53 WTA (MCCAIN)

New Jersey: 52 WTA (MCCAIN)

Alabama: 48 (HUCKABEE)

Colorado: 46 (ROMNEY)

Massachusetts: 43 (ROMNEY)

Minnesota: 41 (ROMNEY)

Oklahoma: 41 (MCCAIN)

Utah: 36 WTA (ROMNEY)

Arkansas: 34 (HUCKABEE)

Connecticut: 30 WTA (MCCAIN)

Alaska: 29- numbers not out yet

North Dakota: 26 WTA (ROMNEY)

Montana: 25 WTA (ROMNEY)

Delaware: 18 WTA (MCCAIN)

West Virginia: 18 WTA (HUCKABEE)





Super Tuesday Wrap Up- Democrats

5 02 2008

* Magic Numbers, those that we love or the ones that are just really important. 2,025 need for nomination & 1,681 are up for grabs on Super Tuesday. 16 primaries and 7 caucuses.
* Of course they are not winner take all, but I won’t post a delegate count until later. it is safer to wait until all precincts are in and counted.
* IN ORDER OF DELEGATE COUNTCalifornia: 370 (CLINTON)

New York: 232 (CLINTON)

Illinois: 153 (OBAMA)

New Jerseys: 107 (CLINTON)

Massachusetts: 93 (CLINTON)

Georgia: 87 (OBAMA)

Missouri: 72- (OBAMA)

Minnesota: 72 (OBAMA)

Tennessee: 68 (CLINTON)

Colorado: 55 (OBAMA)

Arizona: 56 (CLINTON)

Alabama: 52 (OBAMA)

Connecticut: 48 (OBAMA)

Oklahoma: 38 (CLINTON)

Arkansas: 35 (CLINTON)

Kansas: 32 (OBAMA)

New Mexico: 26 (CLINTON)

Utah: 23 (OBAMA)

Idaho: 18 (OBAMA)

Delaware: 15 (OBAMA)

North Dakota: 13 (OBAMA)

Alaska: 13 (OBAMA)

Democrats that live Abroad: 7

America Samoa: 3 (CLINTON)

Obama won the youth vote, caucus states and states that are republican states. 13 states total, so far.

Clinton won the older vote, the Latino vote and democratic base states. 8 (9, with AS) states, so far.





Super Tuesday Predictions- Democrats

2 02 2008

So many predictions are futile, but I will trow myself into this anyways with the knowledge this will make no difference and I will probably be completely wrong. But hey, its fun.

  • Magic Numbers, those that we love or the ones that are just really important.  2,025 need for nomination & 1,281 are up for grabs on Super Tuesday. 16 primaries and 7 caucuses.

So two really good candidates and some very high populated and contested states, so that is where I will start.

California: Crazy unpredictable, but I am going to call Obama for this one. With the his energy and the support I believe he will get out of the youth movement (how many colleges are in California, yeah, I thought so) I believe Obama will get just past Clinton. Clinton does have massive support in California, but I think the Oprah rally coverage may eclipse her in the end. Delegates will most likely be split down the middle, 370 up for grabs, the most for ST. Obama, 196; Clinton 174.

New York: Many say that this is a obviously a Clinton state, and it is, I do believe Obama will come away with delegates from New York. He will have a good showing, but he is putting more energy in other states like California and Georgia. Clinton will win New York and it will be easier for her than any other state, but out of the 232 delegates, Clinton will probably get 60% of them. If I know how to a calculator, that will be 139 Clinton, 93 Obama.

Illinois: Very highly in support for Obama. I think more so then New York for Clinton. Many people will be voting on electability and some do believe that Clinton is a polarizing figure. So I think Illinois is going to come out more so for Obama than New York for Clinton. Illinois has 153 delegates and I will say 68% will go to Obama. Obama 103, Clinton, 50.

New Jerseys: Its proximity to New York may be it of itself an advantage to Clinton. And I think it will go to Clinton. Though a landslide may not be in the works like in New York. NJ has 107 delegates and I predict Clinton, 58 and Obama, 49.

Massachusetts: Split as well, but I will go for Obama on this on. I believe that many endorsements aren’t on voters minds when they walk in to vote or caucus, Senator Kennedy’s endorsement will help in the long run. Massachusetts has 93 delegates. Obama, 51. Clinton, 43.

Georgia: With his win in South Carolina and the massive turnout in the African-America community, Obama will take Georgia and a good amount of their 87 delegates. Obama 52. Clinton, 35.

Remember kids, every delegate counts.

State, there delegates and who I think will win, but of course most delegates will split.

Missouri: 72 delegates (Obama)

Minnesota: 72 (Clinton)

Tennessee: 68 (Clinton)

Colorado: 55 (Clinton)

Arizona: 56 (Obama)

Connecticut: 48 (Clinton)

Alabama: 52 (Obama)

Oklahoma: 38 (Obama)

Arkansas: 35 (Clinton)

Kansas: 32 (Obama)

New Mexico: 26 (Obama)

Utah: 23 (Clinton)

Idaho: 18 (Obama)

Delaware: 15 (Clinton)

North Dakota: 13 (Obama)

Alaska: 13 (Gravel, WHAT, no really he is still in the race, supposedly)

Democrats that live Abroad: 7 (Got me)

America Samoa: 3 (They can vote? Just kidding, they may determine the nomination)

There is a split in the delegation and states after Super Tuesday will actually matter. That is my hope. This is due to the fact that I am in one of those state right after Super Tuesday. Washington State is Feb. 9th. Yeah Washington!!

So it seems hard to try and go through ever freaking state, but I tried anyways. May the best person win.