Now I am not as familiar with the Republican delegation system as I am with the democrats one, but I think I am getting it down. I think the most important thing to remember about the republican delegation is that some states are winner take all, which can make it as messy as the democrats super-delegate thing.
- First magic numbers- Republicans need 1,191 delegates to get nomination. Super Tuesday there is 1,020 up for grabs. 15 primaries and 6 caucuses.
So, like in my other entry on the Democrats, we will start with the most highly contested states.
California: With the most delegates up for grabs it is also the most coveted because it is a winner take all state. It has 173 delegates up for grabs. It seems that McCain is pulling ahead, but I think that in economically conservative districts like San Diego County, Romney will be more likely to pick up votes there. I don’t think Huckabee will have a great showing, but Paul has some great grassroots supports still going. I will however put my money on a slit win for McCain over Romney with Paul in third and Huckabee falling into last.
New York: With 101 winner take all delegates at stake this is also a hot state on the list. Also the fact that Rudy Guliani is out gives John McCain the upper hand with his endorsement. Also Romney’s money and being from a neighboring state helps. It seems like the same situation in California. I believe McCain will take the Empire State.
Georgia: Huckabee will have a better showing in this this southern evangelical state. I believe he will edge out McCain, but since it isn’t a winner take all, Huckabee won’t obtain all 72 delegates.
Illinois: The 70 delegates up for grabs are probably going to be split between Romney and McCain. Though I will call this for Romney, but very narrowly.
Missouri: Another highly evangelical state, but has a rather different conservative base and McCain is gaining momentum. Of course 58 will go to a single winner, but I see a narrow win for McCain over Huckabee and Romney.
Other states, that have less delegates, but are still very important. WTA stands for Winner Take All in my little list.
Tennessee: 55 delegates, three person showing (Go to Huckabee)
Arizona: 53 WTA (McCain, Landslide, home state)
New Jersey: 52 WTA (Romney)
Alabama: 48 (Huckabee over McCain narrowly)
Colorado: 46 (Romney)
Massachusetts: 43 (Romney, but McCain is making a play for moderates)
Minnesota: 41 (McCain)
Oklahoma: 41 (Tossup, but I say Huckabee slight over McCain)
Utah: 36 WTA (Romney, Mormons love this guy)
Arkansas: 34 (Huckabee)
Connecticut: 30 WTA (Romney just over McCain)
Alaska: 29 (Romney, the man with the money, Paul comes in second)
North Dakota: 26 WTA (Romney, Nevada and Wyoming wins help)
Montana: 25 WTA (Romney, Nevada and Wyoming wins also help here)
Delaware: 18 WTA (McCain just ahead of Romney)
West Virginia: 18 WTA (Romney just takes out Huckabee)
I also believe because of the number of delegates and all of the winner take all states that Super Tuesday is more likely to get a result for the republican nomination. McCain is way ahead in the current delegate total.
Going into Super Tuesday this is the total, though as a I write this Maine totals are getting doweled out.
McCain leads with 97 delegates, with three states won and all were the last three whih is tremendous momentum.
Romney is not far behind at all with 74 delegates. He has three wins, but two were not very competitive. Which did nothing for that thing people call momentum.
Huckabee is a bit behind with 29 and only 1 win. He will make a good showing in the south though, just were it is needed.
Paul is back further with 6 delegates and no current wins. Sorry Paul supports, he is dropping out after Super Tuesday.
Running While Screaming 